Predictions, Predictions: Congress and the Courts
How reliable is the generic ballot survey question in helping forecast the size of the Democratic losses that will occur in November? As we move closer to November 2, a growing proportion of my blog...
View ArticlePay No Attention To Those Polls (Or To Forecast Models Based On Them)
Brace yourselves. With the two main party nominees established, we are now entering the poll-driven media phase of presidential electoral politics. For the next several months, media coverage will be...
View ArticleDickinson and Silver, Take Two
Whether he did so out of frustration or some other emotion, I want to thank Nate Silver for taking time from his busy schedule to respond (twice!) to my critique of poll-based forecasting models...
View ArticleIn Defense of Nate Silver (Sort Of)
Nate Silver’s new 538 website opened last week to generally lackluster reviews. “It just isn’t working,” according to Tyler Cowens. Paul Krugman agrees: “I’m sorry to say that I had the same reaction....
View ArticleDear Nate Silver: IT’S NOT MY FAULT!
Once again I am reminded of the power – both good and bad – of social media. My post today discussing the results from the latest Senate forecast models is up here at U.S. News. I should point out...
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